Experts Say Ebola Isn’t the Big One
October 3, 2014
The Guardian — Though Ebola has a high fatality rate when contracted, it is not the thing that keeps most epidemiologists up at night. It could theoretically become pandemic – that is, an out-of-control global epidemic – but experts say that is unlikely.
Ebola is very unlikely to become the next Black Death. But that doesn’t mean something else won’t.
Prof. Ran Balicer
Even with modern medicine, we haven’t rid ourselves of pandemics; indeed, they have sprung up far more recently than 1918. HIV/AIDS is the most recent truly devastating pandemic – and H5N1 avian flu was even more widespread, though less deadly.
“There have been three major [influenza] pandemics, and a mild one three years ago – which doesn’t reduce the possibility of a pandemic happening,” says Prof. Ran Balicer, director of the infectious diseases track in BGU’s Department of Public Health.
Prof. Balicer thinks that the most likely candidate for another pandemic is a strain of influenza. “It is always on the horizon, and is a devastating scenario,” he says.
“It has a good possibility of manifesting in our lifetime; there have been three major pandemics, and a mild one three years ago – which doesn’t reduce the possibility of a pandemic happening.”
In West Africa, no one was prepared for Ebola. Additionally, U.S. pharmaceutical companies are contracted to create a constantly updated bank of seed-stock for vaccines every time a new strain of a virus like influenza is discovered, which allows numerous doses of vaccine to be made in a short time if an outbreak occurs.
“Once every few years we see a new disease in humans,” says Prof. Balicer.
“It’s an example of rolling the dice,” he added. “The only question is: will we experience a mild disease, or a devastating disease like in 1918?”
Read more on The Guardian website >>
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